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Brad Davidson preview Randwick September 7

 Sep 5 2019

Best at Randwick

Race 6 no.3 Helga $2.60 (rated $2.40, confidence 7/10)

Strong win second up and this looks a tad easier for mine. Still has improvement third up and just needs a touch of luck on the map with speed inside. But there’s genuine tempo and she can probably park off them worst case and she looks hard to beat.

Next best

Race 8 no.10 Pandemic $2.70 (rated $2.50, confidence 7/10)

I love the way Pandemic has trialled leading in and he is going to be hard to hold out late. He came a long way in his prep and the only concern is how far he gets back.

 

Short but sweet

Newcastle

Race 7 no.8 Katalin $1.50 (rated $1.40, confidence 9/10)

Unfortunately $1.70-$1.50 just before I sent this taking out most of the value. Super impressive win on debut at Warwick Farm where her last 200m was clearly the best of the day. Extra trip suits and this race has less depth for mine. Should be winning.

 

Normal strategy (120 units)

Randwick

Race 6 no.3 Helga 45 unit win at $2.60 (locked in Wednesday)

Race 7 no.13 Salsonic 2 unit win at $41 and 8 unit place at $8

Race 8 no.10 Pandemic 30 unit win at $2.70

5 unit main quaddie (27.77%, starts r6): 1st leg: 3. 2nd leg: 11,7,13,6,5,3. 3rd leg: 10,8,6. 4th leg: 5.

Newcastle

Race 7 no.8 Katalin 30 unit win at $1.50

Results: To be updated.

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Randwick (3.85 units)

Race 6 no.3 Helga 1.5 unit win at $2.60 (locked in Wednesday)

Race 7 no.13 Salsonic 0.1 unit win at $41 and 0.25 unit place at $8

Race 8 no.10 Pandemic 1 unit win at $2.70

Newcastle

Race 7 no.8 Katalin 1 unit win at $1.50

Results: To be updated.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Assessment of track: Rail true generally very fair.

 

Race 1

Overview: I liked the way Rulership has looked at the trials and he beat subsequent debut winner Prague easily enough at his latest trial. He seems pretty professional and gets the nod here. Ticket To Ride finished third in a Gimcrack on debut and has trialled well leading in. Mission River has prepped up well with two nice trials and should give a kick on speed, while Tight Ropes also commands respect off the recent Rosehill trial.

Advice: Rulership to win.

Speed map: Sea Boss, Tight Ropes, Mission River and Rock My Wand all roll forward. Speed looks solid.

Likely market trend: No comment.

Selections: 3-5-1-10

3.Rulership- Two nice trials this time in. Latest beat Prague easily in good time and that horse won well on debut since. Seems to be pretty professional.

5.Ticket To Ride- 3rd in Gimcrack on debut and nice trial leading in- won heat in OK time. Good speed here and should finish off.

1.Mission River-Two trials- nice efforts- up on speed runner up first one and won latest in fair time.

10: Tight Ropes next best

Race 2

Selections: 1-4-5-3.

1.Mr Wong ($4.20)- Resuming no trials- Capable horse but has problems laying in and needs to go straight. If ironed them out, he can beat these on ability.

4.Bellszov Burke ($6.10)- Two from 2 this prep- Rolls forward on speed and form around him OK. 3rd horse LS won since and horse he beat prior has bolted in maiden grade.

5.Velvet Aeroplane ($7)- Two trials- Like way found line in latest but expect her to do that too. Form last prep is solid for this.

3.Expellable ($7.60)- Just missed fresh and then too good at Mudgee latest in fair figures. Gets chance in Hway.

Other chances:

7.Don’t Cry Mama ($11.60)- Only won a maiden in fair figures LS but something about him. Nice enough horse and has a bit of X factor.

Other runners:

2. Eurosay ($23.5), 8. Hey Dude ($11.6), 9. Know Where To Look ($15.4), 10. Jellies ($23.5).

R3

Overview: Hellenism was very good first-up but the win was a touch better to the eye than on the clock. Looks the horse to beat nonetheless. Indicators On was runner up behind Affinity Beyond last start and I think that’s the right form, while Golden Avenger also has each-way prospects.

Advice: Hellenism on top. Indicators On looks a solid roughie.

Speed map: Golden Avenger and All About Me should roll forward- Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Expect Hellenism to be popular.

Selections: 2-1-6-4

2.Hellenism ($2.70): X factor in first up win where got back, saved ground and rattled home late. Showed glimpses last prep and looks to have come back well.

1.Indicators On ($11.40): Chased Affinity Beyond hard LS and gets a nice 2.5kg swing in the weights, Clocked the 3rd quickest last 200m of the day there.

6. Blitzar ($6.60)- Next best

4.Golden Avenger ($8)- Got there to win in the last stride first-up at Tamworth. Bit more depth here but extra 100m should help. Not hopeless.

Other runners: 3. Conspirator ($8), 7. My Aloysius ($23), 8. Morotai ($57.6), 9. Texas Target ($38.4), 10. Too Hard To Call ($38.4), 11. Zerchois ($115.1), 12. All About Me ($115.1).

Race 4

Overview: Open race. I like the way Dabiyr is going this prep and the step up to 2000m should really suit here. He isn’t a horse with a strong turn of speed but is a sustained speed type who appreciates a quick tempo up front. That should eventuate here. Guise pulled up lame last start and can bounce bac, while Matowi and Mushaireb are both terrific winning hopes as well.

Advice: Leaning to Dabiyr.

Speed map: Fun Fact should lead and roll along with Guise handy. Tempo should be strong.

Likely market trend: No comment.

Selections: 1-7-5-2

1.Dabiyr ($3.50)- Speed should be strong with Fun Fact out in front and he needs speed on Dabiyr as he is a sustained speed horse. Out to 2000m should suit. Did go hard last start and set it up for him thoygh,

7.Guise ($6)- Pulled up 2/5 lame LS forgive, just missed behind the import Vadiyann prior to that. Can bounce back over 2000m.

5.Matowi ($5)- Little between him and Dabiyr last start and Matowi gets a 3kg swing in his favour. Can peak late on his run but does have a nice turn of foot.

2.Mushaireb ($7.60)- Led and fought back off canvas to score LS. Back up in trip in race won’t control but tempo should be solid and might be able to get into a ryhtyhm.

Other runners: 3. Fun Fact ($8), 4. Roman Son ($33), 6. White Boots ($21.7), 8. Devlann ($132).

R5

Overview: Mugatoo looks a talent and it’s hard not to be taken by his trial leading in. Toryjoy and Man Of Peace both liked to control the speed out in front so that will be an interesting speed battle. Valentino Rossa has a great second up record and has been specked at big odds.

Advice: Mugatoo to win.

Speed map: Toryjoy and Man Of Peace both like to control. Speed depends whether they take each other on.

Likely market trend: All revolves around the confidence levels for Mugatoo.

Selections: 9-2-8-4

9.Mugatoo ($3.20)- Just too short at $3.70 considering likely to be back last. Loved the trial leading in though and looks to have talent. Will improve over further but can run well fresh.

2.Toryjoy ($5.40) and  8.Man Of Peace ($6.80) next best- Like to control races but one will have to hand up here?

4.Valentino Rossa ($16.70): not hopeless at big odds. Great second up record.

Other runners: 1. Our Candidate ($23.8), 6. All Too Soon ($10.3), 7. Napoleon Solo ($6.8).

 

R6

Overview: Helga picks herself here and third up there is still improvement to come. She just needs a touch of luck on the map with speed inside but there should be genuine tempo here and she can probably park off them worst case. Missybeel likes to roll along in front and she actually got a pretty soft lead the other day and was rated perfectly. The win was better than it looked than on the clock as a result though. To Your Health went too hard in front last start and her form prior was solid for this.

Advice: Helga to win.

Speed map: To Your Health and Missybeel look the most prominent. Speed should be genuine.

Likely market trend: Expect Helga to be popular.

Selections: 3-4-8-9

3.Helga ($2.40): picks herself here- 3rd up still improvement to come. Just needs a touch of luck on the map with speed inside but genuine tempo and can probably park off.

4.Missybeel ($7): Beautifully ridden LS- Looked like she was going hard in front but wasn’t the case- Even fractions and overall race OK time wise, Nash on but gee Lerena stiff to lose ride considering last start effort (10/10!)

8.To Your Health ($7): Marquand on a big plus- Just went too hard on speed latest and set it up for swoope. This has more depth all the same.

9.Seles ($10.70): Next best

Other runners: 2. Domed ($17.8), 5. Pumpkin Pie ($13.3), 6. Mountain Breath ($54.1), 7. Hokkaido Miss ($21.7).

R7

Overview: Hard to tup against Southern Lad and he was ultra impressive both to the eye and sectionally last start. That was a peak though and he is on trial at the trip (breeding says it’s ok). Sambro was wide in the Magic Millions Cup and kept coming to the line, while Redouble was solid in the same race and he might be back on track. Salsonic rates a solid place chance at big odds and he was third first-up to Dreamforce last prep. A repeat of that will see him run well here. Gaulois and Cellarman both have claims too.

Advice: Southern Lad looks the horse to beat.

Speed map: Expecting Cradle Mountain to be aggressive with Passage Of Time. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Southern Lad will be popular.

Selections: 11-7-13-6

11.Southern Lad ($2.90)- Horse to beat- Clocked very strong late splits to score comfortably over 1200m last start. On trial at the trip and map a bit tricky but horse to beat all the same.

7.Sambro ($6.80)-Wide and working in MM Cup but kept surging late. Ran 3rd in a Villiers three back and definitely capable.

13.Salsonic ($26)- Outgraded here but recent trials are fine and I love the booking of Tom Marquand- 3rd behind Dreamforce first-up last prep at 1300m- posted 2nd QL600 of day there. Unlikely to win but good place hope.

6.Gaulois ($8.50): Little bit disapp fresh but trialled solidly since and is always capable in a race like this.

Other chances:

5.Redouble (%8.50):- Improved sharply to finish second in MM Cup. Is that the right form? Might be back onntrack.

3.Cellarman ($10.40): Loved the trial leading in where he found the line strongly late. Freshened- Ranier race comes through not overly strong form wise since but looks to be going well.

Other runners:

2. Wu Gok ($105), 4. Passage Of Time ($17.3), 9. Cradle Mountain ($26.3), 10. Ever Loyal ($105 12. Albumin ($70).

R8

Overview: I love the way Pandemic has trialled leading in and he is going to be hard to hold out late. He came a long way in his prep and the only concern is how far he gets back. Sir Elton has a bit of a boom on him and his recent trials have been good. He will be up on speed here and give a strong kick. Safado is now with the Chris Waller yard and should finish off strongly, while All Cylonders has won his past three starts and there’s no reason he can’t win again.

Advice: Pandemic to win.

Speed map: Rare Episode, Sir Elton and Oriental Runner all roll forward. Speed looks decent.

Likely market trend: Pandemic and Sir Elton look the two they will come for.

Selections: 10-8-6-4

10.Pandemic ($2.50): Really liked his two trials and how far he came last prep- Query is how far he gets back here and he needs luck but I will be surprised if he isn’t super strong late.

8.Sir Elton ($3.90): Good prep last time but didn’t really run time in town even with his win. Trialled well but may get a bit of pressure on speed. In it for a long way.

6.All Cylinders ($13):- Flying this prep- Will find this another level but won his past three starts including latest solid win with second horse unlucky since.

4.Safado ($15.20)- First-up off a soft trial for C Waller- Nice horse on his day. Yet to really put huge performances on the clock but has a nice finish

Rough hope-

Patriot ($62.60): Doubt he comes through the right race but sneaky place hope off the run the other day. Found the line well and just wish he was in a weaker race.

Other runners: 1. Rare's Episode ($23.1), 2. Oriental Runner ($47), 3. Ghostly ($93.9), 9. Spiritual Pursuit ($47), 11. True Detective ($15.2), 13. Twirling Moss ($41.7).

R9

Overview: Superium has been heavily backed in early betting and he does look the one to beat. He is looking for 1400m and he finds a really winnable race. He did have a slight hiccup when missing Magic Millions Day when found to be lame in the morning but he is obviously over that and ready to go. Nicochet found the line really well last start but just comes back slightly in trip here. Come Along might also be looking for a bit further but still has claims, while Charretera is always thereabouts in a race like this but is struggling to win.

Advice: Superium on top but pretty skinny in betting now.

Speed map: Above And Beyond and Charretera roll forward. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Superium will be popular.

Selections: 5-11-8-13

5.Superium ($2.20): Well backed and too short now but looks to be looking for 1400m and finds a really winnable race. Found to be lame on Magic Millions morning and scratched there but obviously all OK. Map is a bit tricky.

11.Charretera ($6.20): Well backed last start and was disappointing- Just lacks that change of speed but will keep battling away,

8.Nicochet ($11.20): Good run from the back LS in a race with less depth- 1500m back to 1400m the query? Can save ground inside gate.

13.Come Along ($11.20): Tempo against last start but rattled home late. Reckon he might want a bit further now and stays at 1400m? Gets in light though and draws well.

Other runners: 2. Laure Me In ($13.6), 3. Poetic Charmer ($19.4), 6. I Am Vinnie ($137.6), 9. Above And Beyond ($17), 12. Monegal ($137.6).

 

 

 

 



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