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Brad Davidson preview Canterbury September 11

 Sep 10 2019


Best value

Race 4 no.2 Grimoire $13 and $3.10 (playing tote now)

I thought this was a good roughie here in the shame of Grimoire. Yes, he might miss the start (recent trial very slow out) but I would be surprised if he is not the strongest late here. He has a good fresh record and the way he closed off in his latest heat (in a slick last 600m too) suggests he has come back well.

Best longshot

Race 6 no.4 Great Glen $41 into $34 into $31 and $7 (playing tote now it has come in, also specking Kelvinside in same race at $26)

Very open race where I reckon might pay to go looking for value. I could be way off the mark here with Great Glen but $61 is a nice enough price to find out. Just forget last start and he was off the track the whole time and he pulled up slow to recover. His fresh run was very good over 1500m and he starting to get up to the right journey now. His best form is simply better than these albeit a few years ago but even his form before a chance of stable recently was sound. He needs luck early but should roll forward and hope to get a spot just behind the speed.

Betting strategies

Normal strategy (95 units)

Race 1 no.1 Not A Biggie 10 unit place tote

Race 4 no.2 Grimoire 5 unit win tote and 25 unit place tote

Race 6 no.4 Great Glen 5 unit win tote and 10 unit place tote

Race 6 no.15 Kelvinside 3 unit win tote and 7 unit place tote

Race 7 no.5 Beaufort Park 15 unit win tote

Race 7 no.7 Obelos 5 unit win at $9

10 unit main quaddie (starts r4): 1st leg: 2,6. 2nd leg: 7,5,10. 3rd leg: 4,1,15,5,8,6,7. 4th leg: 5,7.

Results: -3.3 units, (%POT, 3796 unit outlay)


Long game strategy (3.2 units)

Race 1 no.1 Not A Biggie 0.25 unit place tote

Race 4 no.2 Grimoire 0.25 unit win tote and 1.25 unit place tote

Race 6 no.4 Great Glen 0.2 unit win tote and 0.25 unit place tote

Race 6 no.15 Kelvinside 0.1 unit win tote and 0.2 unit place tote

Race 7 no.5 Beaufort Park 0.5 unit win tote

Race 7 no.7 Obelos 0.2 unit win at $9

Results: +11.1 unit profit, (9.8%POT, 112.75 units outlayed)


History rail true Canterbury- Good track expected:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9                      

27/06/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6          Needed to be on fence in run- 6/7 winners on fence in run                                               

8/08/2018         Cant      True      g3          Fence no disadvantage could make ground and wide but fence no disad                                                     

26/10/2018       Cant      True      S5          Pretty fair- on pace winners early then swooping late. No real lanes.                                                      

14/12/2018       Cant      True      S7          Had to be on fence in run at least and helped in st too. 18/24 placegetters entire night on fence                                                   

18/01/2019       Cant      True      G3         No real lanes but on pace helped here                                                      

8/02/2019         Cant      True      S7          Massive advantage to be on fence in run, on pace adv as well but could make ground still. Rain during night big storm.  

8/05/2019         Canterbury         True      G4         First two lanes and on pace an advantage. Hard to make ground out wide                          

19/06/2019       Cant      True      h8         Big adv to be fence in run- 6/7 winners and 15/21 top 3 placegetters fence run  

21/08/2019       Cant      True      G3         very hard to make ground here part early     

Assessment: On pace advantage here. Rail in run a key with this rail position when wet but it won’t be wet.

Wind: Gentle easterly predicted.


Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Parche and she was good late after being held up on debut. Kerrin McEvoy goes on here and the only knock is she will probably be back last on a day where it could be hard to make ground again? Colada looks the threat and I would probably have him on top if I knew they were rolling forward? Keep an eye on any change of tactics there. Not A Biggie looms as the best roughie. He was pretty good in a much stronger race last start and could be worth a place speck here.

Advice: Tactics key here (keep an eye on any change of tactics). Parche on top but the lead is there if they want it with Colada and if he does that he just might be hard to catch. Not A Biggie looks a place chance at odds.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Not a lot of speed here with Colada potentially coming across and Lewis and Bungalow Bill there. Parche gets back.

Likely market trend: Colada may firm if tactics come through that he is going forward. Parche probably starts favourite all the same.

Selections: 8-6-1-4

8.Parche ($3.40)- Held up and found the line well fresh when got out. Stable said they want to get her to 2000m this time in. 1600m looks logical progression. McEvoy on.

6. Colada ($4.20)- Pacifiers 1st time- Got back and closed off OK 1400m (QL200 of race). Now mile? Query on that form.

1.Not A Biggie ($18)- Actually found the line pretty well fresh where thrown in deep end. Back to maiden grade here. other form just fair. Place dover mile last prep.

4.Way Back When ($7)- QL200 of day on debut off slow tempo and then disappointing second up at a mile. Mum was an Oaks winner. Blinkers on now- Month between runs with trial where hit line well with blinkers on (time just fair).

Other chances:

5. Bungalow Bill ($10)- Held ground on debut. Beat cc’fParche home there but should have been other way. Mum won twice at a mile.

2.Kirwan’s Lane ($21)- Got back and found the line OK first-up. Third horse has won since. Now up sharply in trip but mum won twice at a mile and is a full sis to Shillelagh.

3. Lewis ($10)- Younger half sibling to More Joyous. Just fair on dbeut. Up to mile now with blinkers on. 8 subs st out of race on debut for 4 placings but no winners.

Other runners:

7.Hostage Of War ($35)- Comes out of a weak form/rating race two back (7 subs st 1 pl) and then just fair last start. Prefer others.

9. Sound Off ($212)- Hard to have.


Race 2

Overview: I don’t mind the look of Sakura here but I would like a push in the market. She has had two soft trials and hit the line well in the latest in the quickest heat of the morning. I thought her run at Scone was really good on inferior ground. Dance Hall Girl was a strong winner fresh and can win again, while Miss Scorcher made the most of an on-pace bias last start but did beat subsequent winner Subpoenaed there all the same!

Advice: Late betting gives us some intel on Sakura here on whether she is ready and has improved. No knock on 1 and 2.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Miss Scorcher, Major Wager and Dance Hall Girl look the three prominent. Speed is dependent on whether those three take each other on for the lead or not.

Likely market trend: Dance Hall Girl will be popular. I’m not sure which way Sakura goes.

Selections: 4-2-1-5

4.Sakura ($4.20)- Two soft trials- Hit line well in quickest heat of morning last start under no pressure. Beat Echo Gem last prep then went to Scone and was super back on inside which was clearly inferior.

2.Dance Hall Girl ($3)- Right part of track (on pace + first 3 lanes adv) but still nice return. 2/2 now. Sectionals were OK. Bit more depth here perhaps but runs well.

1.Miss Scorcher ($4.50)- On pace bias helped byt good win latest when up on speed and stuck on too score. Same grade, up to 61kg now. Beat Subpoenaed there.

3.Major Wager ($10)-Two trials- Latest against quality opposition in slow time. Needs to improve from last prep for mine.

Other runners:

6.Miss Belief ($24)- Ear muffs 1st time. Too keen before a break. Hasn’t shown too much in two trials for mine. Won on debut but then fair after that. Ear muffs seem to have settled down a touch.

7. Our Revenue ($16)- Dunbrody Power had her measure easily two back and then was OK last time out. Hard to have here.


Race 3

Overview: Open race this. I want to lean the way of Cock Match and he comes back as a gelding after showing ability last prep. Tim Clark was aboard him in the trials and has opted to ride Good Stock and that’s the query? Still, he has trialled up nicely and he goes on top. I think the best horse in the race is Grand Piano. I loved his run first-up where the tempo and short trip was against him. He just gets back to last here. Astralis had no luck in a Randwick maiden on debut and will have plenty of admirers here.

Advice: Leaning to Cock Match at the odds. Grand Piano will have the flashing light on late and can feature with luck. Astralis will be popular.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Good speed expected here with Cock Match, Papal Warrior, Good Stock, Vienna Rain and Bollywood all showing speed. Should be a strong tempo.

Likely market trend: Expect Astralia to firm.

Selections: 3-10-13-1

3.Cock Match ($6)- Gelded- Won latest trial Rosehill in good fashion- not asked great deal late. Should lead and showed ability first prep.

10. Astralis ($5)- Was coming into the race on debut before suffering severe check at 150m mark.Closed off well recent Cant trial. 5 subs st out of late race 0Pl.

13. Our Girl Snitti ($12)- Not disgraced behind Libertini then got home OK in good rating race latest where winner won in town since. Quickest 3 x 1100m races in B64 on day. Form looks OK, can’t dismiss.

1.Papal Warrior ($6.50)- WNC last start and stuck on. Freshened. Won a recent Rosehill trial- 3L slower than Cock Match on same day and L600 about 3.5L slower.

Other runners:

4. Good Stock ($8.50)-Slowest heat of morning- Jumped well, found line well. T Clark rode this horse and Cock Match in trial but sticks with this horse.

5. Vienna Rain ($10)-2 trials-Pushed out to score in latest trial in solid time. Second horse there also pushed out and beaten 4L Cant only start in mdn to date.

7.Johnny Angel ($20)- OK fresh when beaten 2.5L here. 2nd to Faretti recent trial pushed out in quickest 1045m heat of day at Randwick. 35.7 L600 though wasn’t that flash.

8.Bollywood ($10)- WNC and stuck on well first up on day where hard to make ground.Form last prep was solid. 5 subs st out of first up run for 0 pl. Tactics.

11. Zensational ($40)- Two recent trials just fair? Time not great. Blindfold FIRST TIME, Stallion Chain FIRST TIME. Full sibling to Tip Top.

12.Nudge ($80)- Soft trial since well held on debut.

14.St Covet’s Spirit ($30)- Track against fresh when couldn’t make ground out wide. Still needs to lift,

Race 4

Overview: Thought this was a good roughie here in the shame of Grimoire. Yes, he might miss the start (recent trial very slow out) but I would be surprised if he is not the strongest late here. He has a good fresh record and the way he closed off in his latest heat (in a slick last 600m too) suggests he has come back well. Kylease is hard to beat but odds on first-up with three or four speed runners inside her is the slight knock. El Mo will want to make a statement with the Kosciousko tickets closing this week so expect that horse to be ready to rumble. November Man is well graded but I much prefer him at 1000m. The last 50m is the query.

Advice: Grimoire the each-way value of the day.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Bombarding, The Pharoah, Kylease, Hibiscus Lady and even Appian Way, Vedder and El Mo all showing speed.

Likely market trend: I think Grimoire has to get in from $19. Kylease starts a popular fav but may drift a touch late.

Selections: 2-6-3-5

2.Grimoire ($9.50)- Two trials- first one soft one, second trial slow out and ran on well under no pressure- 33.6 L600 in trial was quickest of morning- Can get home but barrier manners?

6.Kylease ($2.20)- Came a long way last prep- Won 3 straight then too keen inf ront out to 1400m when pulled up slow to recover as well. Two trials in sharp time- latest quickest of morning- Still a touch keen and speed inside the two knocks.

3.El Mo ($10)- Resuming, no public trials- Won first up last prep and then won again off 7 week freshen. Came to town and competitive end of last prep. Will want to be wound up with Kozzy tickets closing yesterday.

5.Roosevelt ($8)- Has been a bit overrated. Disapp last start on wet ground- went forward and not far away first up in weak form race (8 subs st 1 pl). Has claims back onto dry but normally starts unders?

Other runners:

1.Bombarding ($21)- Day when it was hard to make ground and he led and got run down late. Missed start prior. Others more upside.

7. Hibiscus Lady ($27)- Raced keenly outside lead LS but disapp all the same. This looks no easier.

8.Our Dasha ($36)- Jumped well, went back and closed off OK. Better horse on speed? Speed inside here? This h snore depth than LS.

9.The Pharoah ($72)- 19 runs since his last win/ This looks a bit beyond him.

10.Vedder ($13)- Blinkers on, winkers off.Pushed out latest trial in good heat against Enticing Star and solid time. Just not sure he has depth of form for this?

11. Vincero ($72)- Track bias against first up (couldn’t make ground out wide). Still needs to improve.


Race 5

Overview: I tried to find something to beat Erno because I think that last race he comes through isn’t as strong as everyone thinks but this isn’t a strong race and he rolls forward with James McDonald in the saddle. Quadriga has trialled up well and did win first-up at this track and distance last prep, while Sedition should have beaten Erno last start but just comes up with a tricky draw here and will probably give the favourite a start. Lilith was good last start but had the race set up, while Dio D’Oro is not hopeless but prefers wet ground.

Advice: Slight leaning to Erno but he is bit short for mine.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Adonis Victorious and Erno look the two most prominent with Lilith potentially rolling forward this time from the better gate. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: I’m not sure what they do with the favourite here. I think he is short enough but he is a popular horse all the same.

Selections: 7-5-10-1

7. Erno ($3.10)- had his chance fresh in race just missed- thrd horse Sedition should have won. Time was .4s slower than Dance Hall Girl on same day. Great chance again but might be overplayed by market here.

5.Quadriga ($5)- Nice soft trial coming in. Won first up this t/d last prep in fair figures. Draws well.

10. Sedition ($8)- Should have beaten Erno last star. Just comes u woth a wide draw now and probably has to go back. Gets a 1kg swing on that horse. Placed 3 of 6 here. 13 runs since last win.

1.Dio D’Oro ($12)- Covered fground but only one turn.Hard to make ground out wide last start but he got home OK. Just gets back again? McEvoy on.

Other chance:

3.Lilith ($13)- Too good at Newcastle where able to get home over the top late in a race definitely run to suit.Second horse has won since. Maybe too quick in front prior?

Other runners:

2.Electric Charlie ($20)- Closed off well recent Albury trial against mdn horse. Fresh record is sound. Can’t say no here.

4. Ever So Natural ($24)- Got home OK last start in race that rated fairly. Hasn’t won for 15 starts now.

6. Ruthless Agent ($57)- Pushed along recent trial when 3rd Cant. Off a long break here and trial was fair?

8.Adonis Victorious ($20)- led and caught late last start in Cl2 grae. Up in class here, Won three back but not strongest form race. Can run a cheeky race nonetheless.

9.Isorich ($23)- Good enough to win this on his day. Just battling last few. 31 runs now since his last win.

11.Notabadidea ($284)- Needs to lift.

Race 6

Overview: Very open race where I reckon might pay to go looking for value. I could be way off the mark here with Great Glen but $61 is a nice enough price to find out. Just forget last start and he was off the track the whole time and he pulled up slow to recover. His fresh run was very good over 1500m and he starting to get up to the right journey now. His best form is simply better than these albeit a few years ago but even his form before a chance of stable recently was sound. He needs luck early but should roll forward and hope to get a spot just behind the speed. James McDonald jumps aboard Bajan Gold and he didn’t have much luck fresh. He can figure in a race like this. Kelvinside was a bit disappointing last start but up in trip now he can improve here. His two runs prior to that were sound. Rapido Chaparro should lead and be hard to beat gain. He just has the 62kg here. Bajan Gold can also run well, while Achondrite may be looking for this trip but seemed to have her chance all the same last start.

Advice: Specking Great Glen and Kelvinside at the odds.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Expect a genuine tempo here with Rapido Chaparro and Perfect Rhyme up there, while Great Glen will try to come across. Achondrite and Dashing Special should be there too.

Likely market trend: No opinion.

Selections: 4-1-15-5

4.Great Glen ($21) Really liked the way he found the line first-up and then WNC and slow to recover last start.2nd in Kerang Cup third up last prep. Wide gate doesn’t help but can bounce back.

1.Rapido Chaparro ($5.50)- Went forward and just caught late at WF on day hard to make ground. Now up to 1900m. Rolls along again but a bit of company up front.

15.Kelvinside ($12)- Just fair last start but I reckon he was looking for this trip already. Now out to 1900m. DDid place here 1900m last prep- Can run on late at odds.

5.Bajan Gold ($9.50)- Went to line without being fully tested fresh fresh. 1900m helps so does good track. Will be running on.

Other chances:

8.Achondrite ($6)- Seemed to have her chance LS although maybe looking for further. Race was run 3-4L quicker than other race over same trip on day.

6.Fast Train ($9.50)- Had been knocking on the door and got the job done last start. 2nd horse has won since. Figures just OK but coming out of good rating races prior?

7.Genoveffa ($9.50)- Turned the corner since they’ve got her out in distance. Won her past two now. This has more depth but can’t say no.

Other runners:

2.Clevanicc- Scr.Got home OK last start from midfield. Prefers wet but can’t say no. Has the weight. Bowman sticks.

3. Dalmatia Prince- Scr.

11.Le Lude- Scr.Beat home Achondrite two back and then revelled in wet conditions when second to Wimlah Sat city grade. On trial at the trip but out of a Galileo mare. Wide gate?

12.Dashing Special ($32)- Got the job done LS but this looks to be much tougher. 5 subs st 0 pl out of last race and figures were average.

13.Notabadharada ($96)- Shown ability in the past but needs to lift. Maybe looking for wet track?

14.Misty Summer ($12)- Well backed and too good last start. Was a mdn and figures weren’t great. 4 subs st 0 placings as well. Has upside though up to 1900m.

16.Eden Vale ($48)- Well beaten at Bathurst last start and that’s a worry.


Race 7

Overview: Open race to finish the day. I want to give Obelos another chance only because the stable felt he may have choked down last start. He did seem too bad to be true there and was heavily backed. He might fade out of it again but at $10 I’m happy to speck in case he did choke down last start. Beaufort Park looks the horse to beat and he was really good last start. He failed at his only run at a mile but that was when he led and was keen in the run. He is taking a sit now and the problem is he is still a bit keen so he wants them to roll to allow him to get into a rhythm.

Advice: Can play both Obelos and Beaufort Park.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Doesn’t seem to be a heap of speed here with Paulo Pace and The Bald Eagle right there.

Likely market trend: Beaufort Park should hold favouritism in an open race. Do they come for Obelos again?

Selections: 5-7-12-4

5.Beaufort Park ($4)= Found the line nicely LS in solid Rating race. Not easy to make ground out wide but he did. Failed only run a mie but too keen in front. Taking a sit, still a touch keen. Wants them to roll.

7.Obelos ($7)- Loomed and knocked up fresh. Backed second up and weakened badly. Trainer felt may have choked down? Money was there. Draws well again

12.Waking Moment ($9)= Got past Wimlah last start who has won since. Found the line well. Now 1600m. Just hasn’t won for some time. Sat grade back to midweek. Only won 1/23 overall.

4.The Bald Eagle ($101)- Had all the favours in front last start but was able to hold on. WNC and bumped badly in straight prior. Up 3kg. Tougher here.

Other chances:

13.Paulo Pace ($12)- bumped at 300m and forced wider on turn Won race on protest. Won prior IN OK figures (9 subs st finished behind him that day for 3 pl)

3.Flying Pierro ($11)- Tempo and track bias against LS. Tempo also against two back. Should close off late. Meets The Bald Eagle 2.5kg better off.

Other runners:

2.The Cartoonist ($15)- Comes through an average form race last start where he had his chNance. Won well prior.

6.Johnny Vinco ($178)=Blinkers OFF FIRST TIME, Lugging Bit FIRST TIME, Tongue Tie OFF FIRST TIME. Two trials OK first one and found the line well second one- Second trial was slow though. Won mdn first up 1400m two preps back. Former Busuttin/Young now with O’Shea.

8.Fastnet Cyclone ($41)= Found the line OK last start from back. Extra trip helps. Second to Angel Of Trth mile third up last prep.

9.Great Danger ($10)= Got all the favours last start and just won in blanket finish. Now drawn wide. Just missed this t/d last prep.

10. Zidane- Scr.

11.Almeheri- Scr. Got into good spot from wide draw last start and ran on solidly. Just not easy to make ground out wide that day where she came.  Gets another chance, first run Cant.

14.Garros ($68)= Scr.Finished top 4 last 3 runs but is that the right form?

15.Super ($136)- Scr.Hard to have.

Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Canterbury September 11

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