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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill September 14

 Sep 12 2019

Rosehill

Good track, rail out 6m

Best bet

Race 7 no.11 Trope $5.50

Seems a decent price for a horse who just ran out of time fresh. The extra 100m, home track and smaller field should give him his chance here. We’re getting the price because of the boom on Arcadia Queen. She looks promising but she is too short for mine considering she has to measure up in Sydney and has to prove she can deliver over 1300m (most of her best runs have been over further). Also specking Redouble in this race but we’ll do that Saturday.

 

Betting strategies

Normal strategy (150 units)

Race 1 no.6 Haames 2 unit win tote

Race 2 no.1 Loveisili 10 unit win tote

Race 3 no.11 Zidane 5 unit win tote and 15 unit place tote

Race 4 no.13 Curata Princess 10 unit place tote

Race 7 no.7 Redouble 3 unit win and 15 unit place tote

Race 7 no.11 Trope 25 unit win at $5.50

Race 8 no.11 Dyslexic 10 unit win at $11 and 15 unit place at $3.30

Race 9 no.6 Beau Ideal 5 unit win tote

10 unit main quaddie: 1st leg: 4. 2nd leg: 11,7,6,4. 3rd leg: 11,4,9,14.13. 4th leg: 14,1,6.

10 unit early quaddie (13.88%,starts r2): 1st leg: 1,6. 2nd leg: 11,5,7. 3rd leg: 3,6,13. 4th leg: 2,1,5,6.

Kembla Grange

Race 7 no.1 Amanito 3 unit win tote and 12 unit place tote

Results: +32 units, 0%POT, 3891 unit outlay)

**More bets to come Saturday morning

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.


 

Long game strategy (4.2 units)

Race 1 no.6 Haames 0.1 unit win tote

Race 2 no.1 Loveisili 0.25 unit win tote

Race 3 no.11 Zidane 0.2 unit win tote and 0.5 unit place tote

Race 4 no.13 Curata Princess 0.25 unit place tote

Race 7 no.7 Redouble 0.1 unit win and 0.5 unit place tote

Race 7 no.11 Trope 0.75 unit win at $5.50

Race 8 no.11 Dyslexic 0.25 unit win at $11 and 0.5 unit place at $3.30

Race 9 no.6 Beau Ideal 0.2 unit win tote

Kembla Grange

Race 7 no.1 Amanito 0.1 unit win tote and 0.5 unit place tote


 

Track rail out 6m track good:

History:

Track bias            F2           F3           F4           F5           F6           F7           F8           F9

8/12/2018            Rose      6m          G4          No bias. Fair track!                                                          

3/06/2017            Rose      6m          G3          Fair- 2-5 off best ground but fence OK too                                                            

24/02/2018         Rose      6m          G4          Fairish track but wider better- Hard rail seemed wrong place                                                      

2/06/2018            Rosehill 6m          G4          Fence real advantage early                                                          

26/08/2018         Rose      6M         s5            Well off fence, wider the better                                               

26/09/2018         Rosehill 6m          S5 and worse     Big fence day here. Key adv first 6 races and then got wide with rain thereafter.                                                        

17/11/2018         Rose      6m          G4          On pace adv but more tempo rel. Fence early races but evened oit midway                                                               

8/12/2018            Rose      6m          G4          No bias. Fair track!                          

23/02/2019         Rose      6m          S7           Not easy to make up a heap of ground. First fer lanes inferior and wider the better                                                  

30/03/2019         Rose      6m          H9           First 3-4 races on speed and close to fence. Got wider as day went on but didn't want to be far off them                                                   

15/06/2019         Rosehill 6m          S5           ok first couple and then got to middle of track here

27/07/2019         Rose      6m          G4          Pretty fair track, don't think hard fence was the best but could win there                               

Assessment: Bit of a mixed bag but lately they’ve been getting off to the middle of the track.

Wind: Light south easterly.

Race 1

Overview: Open race as these Highways normally are. Gem Dealer is the horse they all have to beat. She found the line well fresh over 1100m and the 1400m looks ideal. I was taken by the way Haames found the line first-up at Taree. He lost several lengths before the turn due to interference by the riderless horse but picked up really well late. He has won a Highway in the past. I like the way Glamour Cruise found the line last start and she is on trial at the 1400m but just might be looking for it. Her mum won twice over the mile during her career. Autumn Ridge has put two on trot in convincing fashion and can measure up, while Schappose, Jumper Leads and Nothin’ Like Harry are among the other main chances but the hopes don’t end there. Sausedge comes right into contention if he gets a run but that’s unlikely.

Advice: Gem Dealer on top. Haames could get out to silly odds on race day.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: There doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed on paper but we know they generally go quick in these Highway races. Jumped Leads could take it up and Nothin’ Like Harry could roll forward. Speed is up in air.

Likely market trend: Gem Dealer should start fav but there will be quite a few movers both ways.

Selections: 9-6-10-11

9.Gem Dealer ($4.50)- The horse to beat. She found the line well fresh over 1100m and the 1400m looks ideal. Her form around Supernova and Costello last prep reads well!

6.Haames ($12)- Won a Highway race over the mile last prep. Might be one run too soon but I liked the way he found the line fresh after copping severe interference before the turn by the riderless horse. Could start silly odds here.

10.Autumn Ridge ($10)- This is a new level but has been impressive at his past two wins. No shock to see him measure up.

11.Glamour Cruise ($11)- found the line last start and she is on trial at the 1400m but just might be looking for it. Her mum won twice over the mile during her career.

Other chances:

2.Nothin’ Like Harry ($12)- Liked his trial coming in. Won first-up last prep in average figures at Albury. Has a big run next to name at Flemington.

5.Schappose ($8)- A month between runs up in trip but got too far back last start and is building. Yet to tick that 1400m box?

8.Jumper Leads ($16)- Just ok last start but looks to roll forward and potentially get control with Nash on. 1400m?

Other runners:

1. Equal Balance ($33), 3. Nicconita ($15), 4. Carillon ($16), 7. Weather Channel ($26), 12. Storm Attack ($87), 13. Poor Corner ($263).

Race 2

Overview: I want to lean the way of Lovesili here and she had excuses two back (jockey felt he was lame) and then made ground off a slow tempo in inferior ground last start. He should settle closer and the speed looks genuine here. Shock Alert is the horse to beat and he looks ready to peak here with Nash Rawiller jumping aboard. He is well found at $3.20 though and he is a bit one paced. Humboldt Current should be running on, while Heart Of Grace was heavily backed first up and didn’t handle the wet track. The blinkers go on here. Le Lude might be looking for this trip but has to do it on top of the ground now.

Advice: Leaning to Loveisili at the odds.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Speed looks solid with Perfect Rhyme, Shock Alert and potentially Heart Of Grace (blinkers on) up there.

Likely market trend: No opinion.

Selections: 1-6-7-10

1. Loveisili ($8)- Jockey felt he was lame two back off a break. Got back latest in slow run race but made ground in inferior part. Can settle closer, MCeVOY sticks, speed should be genuine.                

6. Shock Alert ($3.70)- Likeable horse up in trip. Has placed 2000m. Just not a horse I thought I would ever take $3.20 about on Saturday. He is going well but he is limited and has a bit of pressure up front. Horse to beat and Nash on a plus, just skinny enough?                                                                            

7. Humboldt Current ($8)- A lot found him last start off his slashing run in Melbourne where race was run to suit. Maybe bogged down a touch last start on wet and was on inferior ground. Should be running on.                                                                                                                              

 10. Le Lude ($11)- Did enough behind Wimlah. That was on wet ground though. Out of a Galileo mare so could be looking for this tri.                                                                                                          

Other runners:                                                                                                 

2. Cogliere ($27),4. Pirate Ben ($44), 5 Lady Cuvee ($13),  8. Clevanicc ($16), ($9), 11.Perfect Rhyme ($14), 12. All Tiara ($33)

Race 3

Overview: I think there is a good roughie here in Zidane. Sure, he is a horse I have been following but his first two runs this prep were super and then he was disappointing last start but you couldn’t make ground out wide that day at Warwick Farm and I want to be forgiving. Fourth up last prep he missed narrowly in at this track and distance in a race probably a touch easier but he should start 30-1 here. I thought the bookies would miss Irukandji here and they did at first glance but the punters took care of that quickly. He has been $9-$3.90 and looks too short now to back. He should get back out though and might be one to back race day. Forget his last run on wet ground and he is a dry tracker. He was super first-up over an unsuitable prep and looks back on track as a gelding this time in. Adana is likeable but I wonder whether he had his day last start on his preferred wet ground? Now back on top of the ground is a query.

Advice: Zidane each-way but play tote as I reckon he will get out. Also, I could back Irukandji if he gets back out to $5 plus as well. The $3.90 looks a slight overreaction.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Fabricator and Mapmaker look most prominent with Irukandji handy. Speed looks genuine enough on paper.

Likely market trend: Irukandji should drift a touch after being $9-$3.90. Adana is a popular horse so will probably start favourite. I reckon Zidane gets out late.

Selections: 11-5-7-3

11.Zidane ($13)- QL200 of race first two runs back and then bias against last start. Fourth up last prep here almost won at odds and went down in a photo at this track and distance. Looks the value.

5.Irukandji ($4.30)- Just well found now at $3.90 but has been heavily supported in from $9. Forget LS when too wet. Fresh run was really good in a high rating race on dry. Gets his chance as a gelding.

7.Adana ($3.90)- Bolted in LS but that was wet and confident that is his preferred ground. Likeable again but short enough all the same,

3.Mapmaker ($11)- Got the job done LS but was a lucky winner (Duchess Of Lennox should have won). Figures were fair and think he is just going OK personally.

Other runners:

1. Super Tycoon ($320), 2. Dissolute ($40), 4. Angel Of Heaven ($13), 6. Juventus ($11), 8. Bull Market ($24), 9. Fabricator ($35), 10. Oneness ($16).

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past Dabiyr and he was impressive at Moonee Valley last start. The overall figure from the race was aided by a strong pace but his staying prowess came to the fore late. He should be hard to toss here but I’m always wary of taking short prices about staying horses. I was on Curata Princess to place last start and I see no reason to jump off here. The tempo of the race was against her and she was held up at the top of the straight as well but she had the best late splits in the race behind the winner Our Candidate. Costello is yet to prove he can run 2400m but he will love getting back onto a dry track, while Gayatri and Castel Sant’Angelo also have claims.

Advice: Dabiyr on top but happy to play Curata Princess to place.

Speed map: Castel Sant’Angelo and Milseain look the two leaders with Dabiyr just tucking in behind them. Monsieur Sisu also rolls forward. Speed looks genuine enough.

Market trend: Our place play Curata Princess has already been $51 to $26 but I expect her to get back out late, so playing late.

Selections: 3-6-5-13

3.Dabiyr ($2.50)- Hard to go past Dabiyr and he was impressive at Moonee Valley last start. The overall figure from the race was aided by a strong pace but his staying prowess came to the fore late. That was his first run at 2500m in Aus. He should be hard to toss here over 2400m.

6.Costello ($7.50)-Yet to prove himself at 2400m but too wet LS. Had no luck at all prior to that at Rosehill on dry track and should have gone close three back. Gets another chance.

5.Gayatri ($8)- Went forward in slow run race and beat all bar Our Candidate. Beat the rest comfortably as well. No luck two back! Building.

13.Curata Princess ($22)-I was on Curata Princess to place last start and I see no reason to jump off here. The tempo of the race was against her and she was held up at the top of the straight as well but she had the best late splits in the race behind the winner Our Candidate. Looks to be more pressure here.

Other chances:

11.Castel Sant’Angelo ($9)- Beaten in B70 grade last start but he is a bulldog. Really fights on when headed and that should be the case again here. Up in grade but down in weight as a result.

Other runners:

1.Sayed ($120), 2. Milseain ($36), 4. Our Gravano ($26), 7. Desert Path ($36), 8. Monsieur Sisu ($90), 9. Nahuel ($25), 12. Mrs Madrid ($22).

Race 5

Overview: What do we do with Castelvecchio? His talent can’t be questioned but first-up at 1500m has to be a query for mine. Particularly, when he was also nominated for a 1200m race on the same day. His trials have been solid and I’m not marking him down for the first trial without the blinkers on (I don’t think he had them on from what I could see and it was also a very fast heat!). I want to be with True Detective and whether he should have won on protest last start or not the step up should suit. Subedar didn’t handle the wet track last start and can bounce back here. He gets the blinkers on. Just Thinkin’ should find the front and take some catching, while Superium has been backed early and was first past the post in the Up And Coming before being demoted to second. He has been disappointing since though. Persan isn’t the worst $151 chance I’ve seen. He should have almost won the Fernhill at Randwick in the autumn over a mile but was involved in a fall in the last 100m. That was a very weak race though and his form either side of that hasn’t been great.

Advice: True Detective to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even only with Just Thinkin’ the likely leader with Superium and True Detective rolling forward.

Likely market trend: Expecting True Detective to potentially start favourite here.

Selections: 2-1-5-6

2.True Detective ($3.50)- Won the Up And Coming controversially on protest. Unlucky prior to that against older horses where he missed the jump. Uo to 1500m should suit. Can only run well.

1.Castelvecchio ($3.60)- Best horse in race but first-up at 1500m has to be a query. Can win for sure but fitness may tell late as well? Was nommed for 1200m race on day as well.

5.Subedar ($10)- Blinkers on. Was in inferior ground and didn’t handle the wet track last start. Defeated subsequent winner Wimlah prior. Can bounce back.

6.Just Thinkin’ ($12)- Won mdn in OK figures. On Derby path, Should lead and give a kick!

Others for multiples:

4.Superium ($10)- Just Thinkin’- Ticked the maiden off in OK figures, younger sibling to Thinkin’ Big on the Derby path. Leads with Clark sticking and should run well.

11.Persan ($70)- Just OK fresh but got a bit warm in the yard. Should have almost won the Fernhill last autumn before falling just before the line. That was a weak race though. Not hopeless here at $151.

Other runners:

3. Shadow Hero ($18), 7. Reformist ($45), 8. Edison ($36), 9. Fasano ($30), 12. Lando Bay ($360), 13. My Sweet Fish ($360), 14. Shining Eagle ($360).

Race 6

Overview: Hard to go past Exceedance here and wasn’t he electrifying first-up! He produced some dazzling late splits (easily the quickest of the day) and his last 600m was 11.5 lengths above benchmark for that class of race. I like the blinkers coming off Bivouac here and he was just that bit keen in the run last start. He was no match for Exceedance there but his win prior at Caulfield was very slick is sharp figures (race was run a full second (6L!) quicker than Exhillarates on the same day despite his race being run slower to the 600m). Yes Yes Yes has been trialling really well leading into this and must be respected after being scratched on the wet track a couple of weeks back, while Kubrick should close off well with a viewpoint to the future.

Advice: Exceedance to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Mo’s Crown the only real leader.

Likely market trend: Exceedance starts short.

Selections: 4-3-2-6

4.Exceedance ($2.20)- Outstanding first-up on wet track. Last 600m was 11.5L above class benchmark- easily quickest of the day. Has done it wet or dry. Hard to beat again. Slight knock is he was slow out in race and trial.

3.Bivouac ($4)- Blinkers off which looks a good move. Bit keen in run LS and didn’t seem to love conditions- His rating first up was outstanding. Race run a full second (6L!) quicker than Exhillarates on day despite his race being run slower to 600m.

2.Yes Yes Yes ($7.50): Super trials. Latest comes through heat 18L quicker than any other heat over same distance on same day at Randwick. Run was super in Golden Slipper. Wet track the obv knock first-up. Do they run? 

6.Kubrick ($19)- X factor about this horse. Loved the way he closed off latest behind Dawn Passage at the trials.  

Other runners: 1. Prince Fawaz ($32), 5. Dawn Passage ($24), 7. Hightail ($19), 8. Mo’s Crown ($150).      

Race 7

Overview: Trope at $5.50 looks a play. He clocked the quickest last 200m of the day first-up in a race where he closed off very well. He will be better for that, the home track is a tick as is the extra 100m and I reckon they could be playing to the middle of the track by now anyway. I expect Deploy to run them along here so the tempo should be good. I thought the $41 about Redouble was generous (no $26). He always runs a race fresh and he chased home Stradbroke winner Trekking and Brave Song first-up last campaign. I liked his trial coming in albeit in slow time. The place looks the way to play it. Arcadia Queen has trialled really well leading in and she might just be too good but I can’t take odds on about her considering her best form to date has been over further. I have to play around her at the odds but could easily be wrong. We know Tom Melbourne rarely wins but his fresh form is strong. He was a first-up winner last time in and should have also won first-up four preps back. First-up the two preps in between he was narrowly beaten in Group 2s.

Advice: Trope to win the main gamble. Can play Redouble 1 x 5 (more the place) and can even entertain a place play on Tom Melbourne as well.

Speed map: Deploy should ensure an even tempo. Baller rolls forward as does Tom Melbourne you would expect.

Likely market trend: Expect the gap between Arcadia Queen and Trope to firm up.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 11-7-6-4

11.Trope ($4.50)- He clocked the quickest last 200m of the day first-up (10.71) in a race where he closed off very well behind Deprive. Tempo was slow early which was against. He will be better for that, home track, extra 100m and I reckon they could be playing to the middle by now anyway.

7.Redouble ($13)- I thought the $41 about Redouble was generous. He always runs a race fresh and he chased home Stradbroke winner Trekking and Brave Song first-up last campaign. I liked his trial coming in albeit in slow time. Go right through his fresh form and it looks strong. Can run well here and should get to the middle which I expect to be place to be.

6.Arcadia Queen ($2.50)- Took all before here in WA last prep- No knock just the $1.85 seems skinny to find out if she measures up. There also has to be a query on whether she a mile plus horse although she is being set for an Everest.

4.Tom Melbourne ($14)- We know Tom Melbourne rarely wins but his fresh form is strong. He was a first-up winner last time in and should have also won first-up four preps back. First-up the two preps in between he was narrowly beaten in Group 2s. Scatched last week for this.

Other chance:

12.Baller ($13)- Figures weren’t great last start (4-5L slower than Libertini on day) but he had the big weight and gets a good run on map. Place hope.

Other runners:

2. Zousain ($28), 3. Volpe Veloce ($28), 5. Deploy ($30), 8. Gem Song ($25), 9. El Dorado Dreaming ($57).

Race 8

Overview: Competitive mares race as is the norm for this time of the year. Hard to be confident here but I think Dyslexic could be worth a gamble at the double figures. I thought her run was just as good as Mizzy’s first up and she draws a gate to sit much closer here. Her last 600m of 32.8s was the sixth quickest of the day. Champagne Cuddles is likeable from the good draw and she always put in 110 per cent. She is probably short enough all the same but her trials have been pleasing as normal. Invincibella’s coming off a Group 1 win and she won this race last year off the same lead up (ran in the Tiara and then trialled into this). She ran fifth in the Tiara last year but won it this year. Her last couple of fresh runs since then haven’t been outstanding though? Mizzy and Fasika both have claims but they seem too short for mine. Fasika might just go to a new level this prep but she is being priced on already taking that step at $5. She did go up $11 though so expect her to get back out. She is not well off at the weights here.

Advice: Dyslexic each-way.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Ready To Prophet should lead with Fasika and Alassio also rolling forward. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: I thought Dyslexic would start single figures.

Selections: 11-4-9-14

11.Dyslexic ($8)- Dyslexic could be worth a speck. I thought her run was just as good as Mizzy’s first up and she draws a gate to sit much closer here. Gets a 3.5kg swing on Mizzy too, Had to go right back first up. Her last 600m of 32.8s was the sixth quickest of the day. 2nd up record is sound, loses JMAC but should sit in first few.

4.Champagne Cuddles ($5)- What you see is what you get. she always put in 110 per cent. She is probably short enough all the same but her trials have been pleasing as normal. Video of her track gallop looked very sharp this week.

9.Mizzy ($7)-Good win first up but had all the favours. Now wider gate, up in weight. Can win but short enough now off the visually impressive win.

14.Fasika ($10)- 3/3 and untapped but priced on potential here at $5. Poorly weighted and while she looks promising, this is the strongest field she has met by a few lengths!.

Other runners:

3. I Am Excited ($13), 5. Alassio ($67), 6. Noire ($15), 7. Pretty In Pink ($17), 10. River Racer ($44), 13. Ready To Prophet ($22).

Race 9

Overview: This race probably revolves around whether first emergency God Of Thunder gets a run and I would imagine he does. He has turned the corner since being gelded and he was pretty dominant on wet ground last start. Back on top of the ground should be OK. All Too Royal was a strong first-up winner and he can settle much closer from the good draw here. Beau Ideal didn’t seem to handle the wet track first-up but trialled well behind Redzel prior in a very strong heat prior, while Sharpe Hussler has been going better than it looks and gets his right set up again (Rosehill 1100m on dry ground).

Advice: Leaning to God Of Thunder.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed should be genuine with It’s So Obvious, Sweet Scandal and Catesby (if they run) up there.

Likely market trend: God Of Thunder starts a popular favourite if he gets a run.

Selections: 6-14-1-11

6. Beau Ideal ($12)- Trialled well behind Redzel in a slick heat and then didn’t handle the wet track first-up. Can bounce back here.

14.God Of Thunder ($3.50)- Gate beat him first-up behind a subsequent winner and then too good on heavy ground latest when scoring convincingly. Needs a scratching to get in field but has turned the corner as a gelding this prep.

1.All Too Royal ($4.50)- Strong win fresh when had to go right back from the gate and closed off to score. Can park closer here and has been kept fresh.

 

10. Star Boy
 

Other runners:

8. Legend Of Condor ($23), 9. Malahat ($106), 12. It’s So Obvious ($35), 13. Catch Me ($79), 15. Spanish Dream, 16. November Man 

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill September 14

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