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Brad Davidson preview Randwick February 15

 Oct 8 2019

Randwick, Feb 15

Best bet

Race 4 no.7 Dame Giselle $1.80 (rated $1.60, confidence 8/10)

Grand final a while away but she has a class edge on these. Solid on debut and then exploded to win Golden Gift in a canter- Time stacked up- quicker than benchmark race on day! Trialled super leading in. Very hard to beat.

Next best

Race 8 no.2 Dreamforce $3.40 (rated $2.90, confidence 7/10) * Locked in Friday

Already been $4.40-$3.40 but I suspect he overtakes Alizee as favourite in the morning and starts anywhere between $2.50-$3. Maps to lead this on his own and he is a very underrated horse. He flies fresh, bolted in first-up last prep and the drying track helps him massively. Alizee is on the drift but will continue to get out if she runs. She has been a good mare over the time but she always goes around very short and her fresh run was OK without getting carried away with. I'm confident Dreamforce should have her measure.

Best value 

Race 1 no.13 Blinkin Snazzy $34 and $10 (locked in Friday)

Gets a run now with an early scratching and looms as a good roughie in the first. Beat $8 hope Onemore Sapphire two back and was just as strong through the line as that horse. Then went to Taree and had no luck up the running when finishing off strongly. Should love the big track, wet ground suits and she gets in light.

Normal strategy

Randwick (215 units)

Race 1 no.13 Blinkin Snazzy 15 unit win at $34 and 15 unit place at $10

Race 4 no.7 Dame Giselle 60 unit win at $1.80

Race 6 no.3 Mongolian Wolf 10 unit win at $9.50

Race 7 no.6 Akari 15 unit place at $4.40

Race 8 no.2 Dreamforce 45 unit win at $3.40

Race 9 no.4 Fiesta 15 unit win at $8

Race 9 no.12 River Bird 5 unit win tote

5 unit early quaddie (starts r3, 41.66%): 1st leg: 1,2. 2nd leg:7. 3rd leg: 2,6,5. 4th leg: 3,7.

15 unit main quaddie (starts r7, 18.5%): 1st leg: 4,1,6.. 2nd leg: 2. 3rd leg: 4,12,11,1,3,5,6,10,13. 4th leg: 7,2,5.

Gosford

Race 2 no.2 Parry Sound 15 unit win at $2.90 

Results: to be updated.

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (6.3 units)

Randwick

Race 1 no.13 Blinkin Snazzy 0.5 unit win at $34 and 0.5 unit place at $10

Race 4 no.7 Dame Giselle 2 unit win at $1.80

Race 6 no.3 Mongolian Wolf 0.25 unit win at $9.50

Race 7 no.6 Akari 0.5 unit place at $4.40

Race 8 no.2 Dreamforce 1.5 unit win at $3.40

Race 9 no.4 Fiesta 0.5 unit win at $8

Race 9 no.12 River Rird 0.1 unit win tote

Gosford

Race 2 no.2 Parry Sound 0.5 unit win at $2.90 

Results: To be updated.

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Think! About your choices.

Risks of the day

Race 4 no.1 Destination $6 - Form and time out of debut win was ordinary at best and I would be surprised if he starts single figures. 

Race 8 no.8 Alizee $2.90- Already $2.70-$2.90 but expect her to be replaced by Dreamforce as favourite and start $3.50+. Chance but too short in betting as is always the case with this mare. 

Race 10 no.2 Vegadaze $3- Concede he is likeable back in grade but I'm not convinced he is going as well as many others suggest. Thought he was plain first up and just seems unders for mine. Can win and risking this one less than the above two!

Randwick rail out 6m history:

23/06/2018       Rwick    6m        h9         Tough to make ground from a long way back- out wide slight adv but could win closer too.

6/10/2018         Rwick    6m        H9         Very fair track this- touch on pace early but could win from anywhere, fence, out wide etc

29/12/2018       Rwick    6m        G4         Pretty fair track. Fence no disadv first 5 races

2/03/2019         Rwick    6m        G4         Few off fence best ground here suiting run on. Fence not best place but not massively inferior

20/04/2019       Rwick    6m        G4         Fair track

22/06/2019       Rwick    6m        H8         Played pretty well but I'm not sure hard fence was the place to be. Wider the better I still thonk. Didn't want to be too far back

12/10/2019       Rwick    6m        G4         Fair track for mine. Maybe didn't want to be 8-10 wide but

26/12/2019       Rwik      6m        G4         Fence and on pace first half program then evened out late

Assessment: Generally pretty fair although sometimes can be a bit fence, on pace first half of program.

Wind: Light south easterly.

Race 1

Overview: Tricky race. . We’re on Blinkin Snazzy at the early odds of $34 here. She is a great roughie- Beat Onemore Sapphire two back and then no luck at Taree. No weight, strong late, I think she runs well. Onemore Sapphire has been ticking over well and he should appreciate wet ground and getting out in trip here. Mayaman clocked the quickest last 200m split of the day at Dubbo when winning over a mile last start and has each-way claims, while Up The Stairs, Harbouring (made a respiratory noise last start but has the tongue tie on here), Quick Spin and Caps Boy are all capable

Advice: Blinkin Snazzy the bet each-way at $34 and $10 (locked in Friday)

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Harbouring and Cap’s Boy look the two most prominent. Speed looks moderate but these Highway races are often quickly run.

Selections: 13-1-4-8

13.Blinkin Snazzy ($16): She is a great roughie- Beat Onemore Sapphire two back and then no luck at Taree. No weight, strong late, I think she runs well. Onemore Sapphire has been ticking over well and he should appreciate wet ground and getting out in trip here.

1. Harbouring ($6.10): Made a respiratory noise LS and want to be forgiving- Tongue tie on here and clearly goes better than LS. Can bounce back.

4.Onemore Sapphore ($7.90)):He has been ticking over well and he should appreciate wet ground and getting out in trip here. Sting out of the track should suit as well.

8. Quick Spin ($7.90): Ran on well LS and should do the same late here. Looks a target race.

Other chances

7. Mayaman ($11.20):- Strong win at Dubbo LS when clocking QL200 of entire day when scoring over a mile. Upside.

6. Up The Stairs ($11.2): Form ties in with first and third pick beating those horses home last time they met. Was off a break there too. Just 1800m the query?

Other runners:

2. Ritmico ($16), 3. Mount Bulla ($#DIV/0!), 5. Rostam ($14), 9. Cap's Boy ($12.4), 10. Refire ($56.7), 11. Senatorial ($28.3), 12. Sir Leo ($14).

 

Race 2

Overview: She’s Ideel picks herself here and she looks a really progressive stayer. She seems at home on wet ground and I don’t think the step up to 2400m should bother her. Birth Of Venus gets a 2.5kg swing on She’s Ideel from last start and she has proven she gets through wet ground with her win two back. I loved the run of Dark Pearl last start but gee his wet form doesn’t read well. He will be hoping the showers miss Randwick this week.

Advice: She’s Ideel to win.

Confidence: 8/10

Speed map: Our Fun looks the leader in a slowly run race.

Selections: 4-2-1-3

4.She’s Ideel ($1.70) picks herself here and she looks a really progressive stayer. She seems at home on wet ground and I don’t think the step up to 2400m should bother her.

2.Birth Of Venus ($4.80): gets a 2.5kg swing on She’s Ideel from last start and she has proven she gets through wet ground with her win two back. If there is a danger to the fav it looks her.

1.Dark Pearl ($8.70): Natural stayer so 2400m looks as if it will really suit. Would be keen on him if track dry but concerned about his wet form?

3.Our Fun ($21.50)- Next best.

Other runners:

5. Knight Star ($#DIV/0!), 6. Notabadharada ($35.8), 7. Etheridge ($#DIV/0!), 8. Fleeting Stryke ($107.4), 9. Time Stalker ($214.8).

 

Race 3

Overview: God Of Thunder looks hard to beat and he trialled really well leading in. He is a proven performer in wet ground and just needs the gaps to open from the inside draw on the turn. Coruscate looks the clear danger and his trials have been super leading in. He is off a long break but is also proven on the wet. Sei Stella, Baller and Miss XFactor on the next line.

Advice: God Of Thunder and Coruscate look the two.

Confidence :7/10

Speed map: Plemty of speed engaged here with 3-4 genuine leaders. God Of Thunder and Coruscate should be around midfield. God Of Thunder will need room at the right time.

Selections: 1-2-3-9

1.God Of Thunder ($2.20): looks hard to beat and he trialled really well leading in. He is a proven performer in wet ground and just needs the gaps to open from the inside draw on the turn. Apprentice on?

2.Coruscate ($4.40):3 looks the clear danger and his trials have been super leading in. He is off a long break but is also proven on the wet. Nice turn of foot and should go close.

3.Baller ($11) Just fair first-up but loves it wet- Peak run when 5th in Galaxy on wet ground. Has also beaten Spiritual Pursuit on S7.

9.Miss Xfactor ($13.40):- Soft trial coming in- Just fair last prep but clearly a good wet tracker.

Other runners:

4. Royal Witness ($33.9), 5. Goldfinch ($67.7), 8. Sei Stella ($14), 10. Dukes County ($270.7),

 

Race 4

Overview: Dame Giselle comes up with an awkward gate here and tactics will be interesting. Either way, she won the Golden Gift before a break in one of the best two-year-old performances of the season and she should be very hard to beat here. Mission River was good behind Rulership (runner up to Hanseatic in the Blue Diamond Prelude since) and natural improvement makes him the danger. I’m against Destination and he won in slow time on debut and the form out of the race has been poor.

Advice: Dame Giselle to win.

Confidence: 8/10

Speed map: Jor El, Mystic Vein, Snitzari and Dame Giselle all look up there. Speed looks solid.

Selections: 7-2-10-5

7.Dame Giselle ($1.60): Solid on debut and then exploded to win Golden Gift in a canter- Time stacked up- quicker than benchmark race on day! Trialled super leading in. Very hard to beat.

2.Mission River ($12.10):Beat all bar Rulership on debut and that horse did run a close second to Hanseatic in a Blue Diamond Prelude since. Natural improvement with second race start and has fitness on side.

10.Ticket To Ride ($17.30):- Nothing between her and Mission River last start. Has ability this filly and has a nice enough finish on her day.

5.Jor El ($21): Made a mess of the start first-up- Trialled well either side- Does a bit wrong but could roll to front here?

Other runners:

1. Destination ($15.2), 4. Lamelo ($123.1), 5. Jor El ($30.8), 6. Mystic Vein ($41), .11. Supreme Idea ($31), 13. Fall On A Star ($25), 15. Snitzari ($40)

 

Race 5

Overview: Cascadian came a fair way in his debut Aussie prep and he finds a really winnable race here first-up from a spell. He gets through wet ground and while his main aim (Doncaster) is over a mile later on, he can sprint well fresh. The wetter the better for Jungle Edge and his chances are enhanced the more rain we get. Desert Lord gets in nice and light and trialled well enough leading in, while Special Reward should roll forward and give a sight.

Advice: Cascadian to win.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Special Reward and Jungle Edge should dictate. Speed looks moderate to even.

Selections: 2-6-5-1

2.Cascadian ($4.40): came a fair way in his debut Aussie prep and he finds a really winnable race here first-up from a spell. He gets through wet ground and while his main aim (Doncaster) is over a mile later on, he can sprint well fresh providing track is fair.

6.Special Reward ($2.80) - OK behind Southern Lad LS in race where they zipped home. She beat the rest easily. Should lead?

5.Desert Lord ($6)- Trial coming in was solid enough- Team Hawkes generally get them fit fresh. Little bit disappointing last prep but back for another crack at carnival races.

1.Jungle Edge ($5)- Marvel isn’t he!? Wet track winner over 1000m in Melbourne in good figures LS. 1200m no issue, just wants it to be a heavy 10.

Other runners:

4. Ashlor ($65), 5. Desert Lord ($6), 6. Special Reward ($4.4), 7. Press Box ($97), 8. Reiby's Regent ($485),

 

Race 6

Overview: Hard to go past Attorney as the one to beat and I really like this import. I think we will see the best of him over 2000m plus but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins this and then goes onto better things. He is unbeaten in two runs in Australia but is coming off a bit of a break here. Mongolian Wolf appeals at the odds. He was outstanding fresh and one he does enjoy is wet ground. Matowi, To Your Health, Insensata and even Monegal at odds are all capable though.

Advice: Attorney the one on the up but short enough. Mongolian Wolf the value.

Speed map:To Your Health, Ulusaba and White Boots the most prominent. Speed looks strong.

Selections: 3-7-11-6

3.Mongolian Wolf ($8.70): Paraded really well fresh I’m told and put the writing on the wall with a super run. Loves wet ground, might want further but happy to play at the odds.

7.Attorrney- ($3.30): Love this horse and made him one of my ones to watch this autumn. He is just a bit short first-up/ Can definitely win and want to follow him. Only against hm from a price perspective.

11.To Your Health ($7.90): Gutsy on pace mare-

6.Matowi ($9.60): He is a ripper- has a short sprint and can peak late. Back in trop n knocl.

Other runners:

4. Insensata ($12.2), 5. White Boots ($13.6), 8. Night Of Power ($13.6), 9. Ulusaba ($17),12. Domed ($34.4), 14. Monsieur Sisu ($22.6),

 

Race 7

Overview: Libertini is a beauty and she is very good behind Exceedance and Bivouac in the Coolmore Stud Stakes in the spring. Tactics will be interesting here from the draw and she isn’t proven in real heavy ground. I would swing back the way of Kiamichi if we get into that proper heavy 9-heavy 10 range. She was disappointing last prep but I’ve always thought she was just a really good wet tracker. Lyre and Flit run on, while Akari to place isn’t the worst bet here. She can run well/

Advice: Libertini on a drying track or Kiamichi if it continues to rain.

Speed map: Kiamichi leads from Sangria- Speed looks even.

Selections: 4-1-6-3

4.Libertini ($2.70): Good fresh horse- bolted in first up last prep and then third Coolmore Stud Stakes behind two of best horses in land off a freshen. Gate?

1.Kiamichi ($6): Looks to lead and trialled well. Is she back? Gers favourable soft conditions to find out.

6.Akari ($21): Can measure up here- Has a nice finishing and should be running on late

3.Flit ($7.50): Blinkers 1st time- Should be a bit sharp for her but she should be closing off late.

Other runners:

2. Lyre ($9.2), 5. Missile Mantra ($23.3), 7. Regimental Band ($62), 8. Emeralds ($185.9), 9. Sangria ($15.3), 10. Electric Girl ($31), 11. Darling Point ($93).

 

Race 8

Overview: Good edition of the Apollo Stakes. Track conditions will be key here and we can be anywhere between a soft and heavy track by Saturday. Dreamforce is a very good fresh horse and he bolted in at this track and distance first-up last prep (biased track favouring leaders and fence helped him though). He will be hard to run down here if the track isn’t too wet and he should lead these easily enough. Verry Elleegant loves wet ground and if it’s a genuine heavy, she can play a part late here. Alizee will have her fans and the tempo was against her fresh. A heavy track would be a knock. Danzdanzdance comes into the play if it’s a genuine bog, while Happy Clapper should be thereabouts fresh.

Advice: Dreamforce to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Dreamforce gets a soft lead.

Selections: 2-8-9-10

2.Dreamforce ($2.90): Maps to get a pretty soft lead for mine. Very good fresh horse and he bolted in at this track and distance first-up last prep (biased track favouring leaders and fence helped him though). He will be hard to run down here if the track isn’t too wet and he should lead these easily enough.

8.Alizee ($4.60): Popular horse- Maintain she always goes around under the odds as a result but she has a nice turn of foot and can feature late. Just doesn’t want it too wet?

9.Verry Elleegant ($7.60):Some positive reports of late to suggest she is a better autumn horse- Settling well enough in trials and loves it wet. Can run well.

10.Danzdanzdance ($14.20): Trials have been solid- Marquand on- Comes into play if genuine bog as loves wet ground. 1400m naturally a touch on the sharp side.

Other runners:

1. Happy Clapper ($8.2), 3. Come Play With Me ($67.4), 4. Life Less Ordinary ($33.7), 5. Hush Writer ($50.5), 6. Angel Of Truth ($202), 7. Glenall ($25.3).

 

Race 9

Overview: These mares races are always very even and this is no exception. I want to lean the way of Fiesta providing the track is in the high soft range or not much worse. I feel she has a good prep for this and I loved her most recent trial. She had no luck in the Sydney Stakes first-up last prep. Reelem In Ruby has drawn awkwardly with the big weight but she just never runs a bad race. She is a beauty. Dawn Dawn should have won first-up, Pohutukawa likes wet tracks but may find this a touch short, while Seasons, Lashes and River Bird all have claims.

Advice: Fiesta the value if it’s not too wet.

Speed map: Spiritual Pursuit, Sweet Deal and potentially Sweet Scandal up there. Speed looks moderate to even?

Selections: 4-12-11-1

4.Fiesta  ($7)- Great fresh mare- Won 3 from 5 first Up. No luck first up in Sydney Stakes last prep when not the best prep leading in. Two trials here- looked good.

12.River Bird ($19)- Too bad to be true LS. Runs well here on soft ground.

11.Seasons ($10)- Hard to knock- Gets in light, on the up here.

1.Reelem In Ruby ($5.10)- Never runs a bad race- big weight, wide gate first up the knocks!

Many other chances too many to list (check quaddie selections if you want to know)

Other runners:

2. Sweet Deal ($14.1), 3. Noire ($22.8), 5. Pohutukawa ($7.4), 6. Resin ($25.4), 7. Sweet Scandal ($28.5), 8. Connemara ($38), 10. Dawn Dawn ($9.2), 13. Lashes ($16.1), 14. Spiritual Pursuit ($76).

 

Race 10

Overview: I thought we would be getting better than $5 about Royal Celebration but he had no luck at all first-up and should have finished much closer. He has drawn a tough gate and just where he ends up and how the track is playing by this time could be vital. Vegadaze is likeable back in grade but his run fresh was just fair for mine and he still needs to do it. Roheryn was a strong winner first-up but I don’t think he likes wet ground. He will want the showers to miss in my opinion.

Advice: Leaning to Royal Celebration.

Selections: 7-2-5-3

7.Royal Celebration ($5.20):- No luck at all fresh but run was super. Draws wide but think he is going really well.

2.Vegadaze ($4.80): Back in grade here on wet ground suits. Just expected more first up and think he was a touch flattered there. Can win but is he back?

5.Roheryn ($7.70):- Good win fresh and drying track helps as convinced he doesn’t like it wet despote what record suggests.

3.Cuba ($14)- next best.

Other runners:

1. Sir Bacchus ($20), 4. Savacool ($23.3), 6. Persuader ($17.5), 8. No Escape ($11.5), 9. Onslaught ($23.3), 10. Travancore ($17.5), 12. Poetic Charmer ($17.5).

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick February 15

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